For this project, my group was contracted to perform a case study on the Picea sitchensis (Sitka spruce) in order to develop a model that could project shifts in the suitability range of the Sitka Spruce under a number of climate change variables. The Sitka Spruce is a coastal-dwelling species that prefers areas with high rainfall and a relatively cool climate. Currently, the Sitka Spruce thrives along the coast of northern California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, as well as Alaska (Fig. 1). According to the U.S. Forest Service, the Sitka Spruce is the most important timber species in Alaska and provides critical habitat for a number of mammals, birds, and reptiles. For these reasons, the range of the Sitka Spruce and how it may vary due to climate change will be the subject of our study, and our goal was to develop a model that can predict the shift in the suitable area for growth of the Sitka Spruce using A2 climate scenarios.
After completing the analysis, we concluded that as the climate changes, the current range of the Sitka spruce is threatened in a number of ways. Our analysis shows a significant decrease in the suitability range of the Sitka spruce if climate change continues on the A2 path. It is important to note that our data shows the areas that could be suitable for the Sitka spruce to reproduce based on our climate variables, but is it not guaranteed that the Sitka spruce would be able to migrate such long distances. Therefore, the range of the Sitka spruce could be significantly smaller than our model predicts if the Sitka is not able to migrate to the most northern parts of this range. Despite this, our model is capable of producing a general suitability range for any species whose growth is greatly influenced by climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. In continuing this study, it would be ideal to include other variables such as slope and water body locations to further increase study accuracy.
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Cartography and analysis for displayed maps courtesy of Roxanne Medina, Jack Gavin, and myself.
